Fantastic post, Steve, especially like your point about how the civil war made for much more complex interdependence, even though Assad stayed in power all those years until it quickly unravelled.
Important question. We don't know yet. It's hard to imagine that they will agree to submit to an Arab Islamist regime. Perhaps Al-Golani will want to consolidate his power first and then move against them. Perhaps there will be other infighting. It's far from over.
I think the Kurds are enjoying American protection at the present time. However, the Kurds fear Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham because it is supported by Türkiye. I believe that Türkiye is the biggest beneficiary of the new developments in Syria.
It's as you mentioned Steven. It was an unexpected event. But it seems that Bashar al-Assad has lost control of the Syrian army. What happened is that the Syrian army withdrew and left the weapons as spoils for the opposition. This also happened in Yemen in 2014, where the Yemeni army handed over all its weapons to the Houthis without a fight.
These terrorist groups cannot be trusted at all. The Houthis turned northern Yemen into a large prison. The Houthis launched terrorist attacks against Israel and international shipping in the Red and Arabian Seas. I believe that Israel will suffer from Syrian terrorist groups in the future because it is on the border. Therefore, Israel must expect the worst from these terrorist groups in the future. Israel must not allow these groups to assume power in neighboring areas.
Fantastic post, Steve, especially like your point about how the civil war made for much more complex interdependence, even though Assad stayed in power all those years until it quickly unravelled.
Good analysis. For the Syrians, be careful what you wish for because who knows what you may get!
Grateful for these insights.
Thanks for your analysis, Steve!
What about the Kurds?
Important question. We don't know yet. It's hard to imagine that they will agree to submit to an Arab Islamist regime. Perhaps Al-Golani will want to consolidate his power first and then move against them. Perhaps there will be other infighting. It's far from over.
I think the Kurds are enjoying American protection at the present time. However, the Kurds fear Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham because it is supported by Türkiye. I believe that Türkiye is the biggest beneficiary of the new developments in Syria.
Very good analysis Steven.
It's as you mentioned Steven. It was an unexpected event. But it seems that Bashar al-Assad has lost control of the Syrian army. What happened is that the Syrian army withdrew and left the weapons as spoils for the opposition. This also happened in Yemen in 2014, where the Yemeni army handed over all its weapons to the Houthis without a fight.
These terrorist groups cannot be trusted at all. The Houthis turned northern Yemen into a large prison. The Houthis launched terrorist attacks against Israel and international shipping in the Red and Arabian Seas. I believe that Israel will suffer from Syrian terrorist groups in the future because it is on the border. Therefore, Israel must expect the worst from these terrorist groups in the future. Israel must not allow these groups to assume power in neighboring areas.